Forecasting platform RANGE
RANGE (Rethinking Assumptions in a New Geostrategic Environment) is a crowdsourced forecasting platform focusing on issues such as systemic rivalry with China, climate change, technology, democracy, geopolitics, and trade and economy. It looks at these issues from the perspective of transatlantic relations.
It aims at building a diverse group of forecasters to bring new, timely, accurate and insightful perspectives to analyses and recommendations for policy-makers.
Crowdsourced forecasting is the ongoing collection of forecasts from a larger, heterogeneous group of people (usually in the form of probabilities), in which the individual forecasts are combined into a “crowd” forecast that often produces a more accurate prediction than that of individual experts. Diversity of opinion, independence of members from each other, decentralisation and special perspectives based on experience, expertise or the ability to do research make a good crowd forecast, complemented by the possibility of up-dating the forecast again and again over time.
Crowdsourced forecasting is based on a combination of two different approaches to thinking about the future: scenario planning and probabilistic forecasts. Both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses and are often considered as incompatible due to their different assumptions and goals. They can, however, successfully be combined by developing clusters of questions that provide early, predictive clues of what the future is likely to be. The RANGE platform follows this methodological approach.
We are convinced that policy-makers will find the collective forecasts we generate useful and practically usable. We invite all interested parties to participate as forecasters on the platform. To do so, it is not necessary to forecast on all issues and topics; participation on the platform can be freely tailored to specific areas of interest and your individual willingness to invest time. To get started, simply register at rangeforecasting.org and make your first forecast!