The Covid pandemic is far from over and it will probably take years before all the economic and social damage is more or less repaired. However, given the severity of the economic crisis and the enormous efforts being made to overcome it, it should already be clear by now that this far-reaching event will bring about long-term changes for our economic life. From the perspective of megatrends, two developments play a special role:
- Firstly, the Covid pandemic is an additional catalyst for digitization. The use of digital technologies will continue to accelerate in the production, retail and service sectors. This will reduce the risk for companies to be exposed to immediate, sickness-related production losses and loss of sales in the event of another pandemic.
- Secondly, a shift in global value chains is to be expected, because efficiency considerations will become less important in the future and risk aspects will play a greater role in business and political decisions. One consequence of this is a greater diversification and relocation of selected economic and technological activities. The advantage: the dependence on foreign technologies, inputs and end products is reduced. The disadvantage: Specialization gains resulting from the international division of labor are reduced. Resilience has a price.
Based on these developments, the Megatrend Report identifies five central hypotheses for the future development of digitization, globalization and demographic change: