A look at the White House in Washington, DC. Blick auf das Weiße Haus in WasA look at the White House in Washington, DC, on a sunny day. In front of the building, a small fountain can be seen.

Special: America votes – our analyses

This election has become a turning point. Not only for the US, but also for the world. We've pooled our expertise on the election here.

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Prof. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer
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Nathan Crist
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Sabine Donner
Senior Expert
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Samuel George
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Christian Hanelt
Senior Expert Europe, Neighbourhood and the Middle East
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Content

Europa now needs a "security policy decade"

by Christian Mölling

Trump’s re-election has cast a shadow over Europe. The Old World is already more vulnerable than it has been for a long time. The biggest land war in 70 years is raging and the continent’s economic performance is suffering. It is precisely these two key areas – the economy and defense – that will undoubtedly be on the next president’s policy agenda and put further pressure on Europe. One can speculate whether Trump’s personal obsession or his advisors’ cool rationality will spur him to turn Europe’s weakness into an advantage for the United States. This, however, distracts from the fact that such a thing is even possible only because Europe has made it possible: Europe’s weakness is home-grown. It also distracts from the fact that the ability to emerge from this predicament still lies in Europe’s own hands.

The silver lining: Everyone now agrees that, unlike with Kamala Harris, the preferred candidate, there are unlikely to be any compromises with Trump that will allow Europe to stay in its comfort zone. Not only can Europe help itself, it must.

Feebly pointing out that many countries are meeting NATO’s 2% quota is not only self-deception, it’s self-endangerment. All of NATO’s European members are already aware that they will have to spend considerably more to arm themselves against the most proximate threat: a Russian attack on NATO territory. And this is true regardless of whether the US remains engaged in Europe. Should the US withdraw its security guarantee, Europe would have to do even more to close the gap in its security. Yes, this cannot be accomplished overnight; and yes, it entails a high risk of Europe having to answer for its own security. But finally starting to do so makes more sense than hoping every four years that voters in the US will elect someone who is willing to consider Europe and not just America. This time, at least, the US electorate decided differently and chose not to prioritize Europe over America’s own problems.

In the economic sphere, Draghi has done the math: Becoming competitive again will also be expensive. The same applies to both areas, the economy and defense: The financial outlay can be seen as investing in future negotiations with the US. After all, there is something to be gained here, too: clout vis-à-vis Washington. If Europe does not want to accept the offers made by the US or give in to its threats, it will need the financial resilience to enter into a conflict and see it through.

The hopelessness could thus create the opportunity to transform Europe so that it is more successful in the future. Not only in relation to the US, but other global competitors as well, and when defending itself against threats and blackmail, both economic and military.      

That is why, for its own sake, Europe should declare a "security policy decade": a 10-year plan the member states and European Commission can use to reduce fundamental weaknesses in security or even transform them into strengths. This will require money – lots of money. But not only. The most difficult question will be how Europe can credibly demonstrate that it would deploy its newfound military and economic strength as a united Europe.

 

Russia forges closer alliances in the shadow of the US election

by Daniela Schwarzer

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election will have a considerable impact geopolitically. For some time now, the world has been characterized by power-based relationships in that different areas of influence are being contested and international rules and negotiated solutions are being granted less and less validity. These developments will be heavily influenced by how the United States positions itself in such a world under a re-elected President Trump. 

The key question for Europe now is whether NATO will retain its deterrent power despite less support from the US and whether its mutual defense clause will remain plausible. Weakening both would not even require the US to leave NATO – a few sentences about the US’s interests moving away from Europe would be sufficient to diminish the alliance’s credibility. Another key question is whether Europe – together with Canada and allies in Asia such as Japan – will soon have to shoulder more of the support for Ukraine. The question of Europe’s future security order will affect Germany in particular, given its geographic location and responsibility as the largest EU member state.

The war’s outcome is relevant not only for Ukraine: What is at stake is whether a nuclear power can successfully invade a sovereign neighbor and violate all the norms that both regulate the peaceful coexistence of sovereign states in the global community and safeguard sovereignty and human rights. Other countries such as China, North Korea and Iran are watching closely.

Russia, struggling with the consequences of its war of aggression, is now casting its net wider. In October, the Russian parliament approved a strategic partnership with the world’s most repressive authoritarian regime. Before the ink on the agreement was even dry, pictures were circulating of North Korean soldiers on Russian territory. Putin did not deny that they are going to war against Ukraine alongside Russian recruits. According to US intelligence reports, there are already 11,000 North Koreans in Russia.

Despite all the efforts made by the political West and despite the country’s inhumane tactics in the war, Russia is anything but isolated. Putin brought together representatives from 36 countries at the three-day BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan. BRICS has included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa since 2009. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have joined more recently. Turkey, Azerbaijan, Malaysia and other states are also interested. Despite the arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court, Putin was able to hold the largest international summit that has taken place on Russian territory in a very long while.

Those present signaled to the political West and the UN Secretary-General, who attended the summit: Your dominance is over, we are setting the international agenda ourselves. Countries that take a different approach to the international order than Western states are increasingly organizing themselves.

Against the background of these shifts in power politics, the rise of BRICS and new military alliances, it will be in the European states’ best interest to maintain relations with the US, regardless of who takes up residence in the White House. In light of that, Europeans must contribute more to NATO and support the US’s security policy priorities, which will gravitate further in the direction of Asia. Partnerships outside of Europe must be broadened and deepened, especially in Asia, for example with South Korea and Japan, with whom political and military relations have been significantly expanded in recent years.

What Trump's return to the White House means

In a broad-based analysis, our Europe experts assess what Donald Trump's return to the White House means for various policy areas. What does Nato have to prepare for? How much support will Ukraine still receive? What does Trump's return mean for the EU's relationship with China? What impact will it have on the conflicts in the Middle East? And what does Trump's election victory mean for trade relations between the EU and the USA?

The Election Hub of the Bertelsmann Foundation North America

The Bertelsmann Foundation North America (BFNA), an affiliate of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, has been serving as a transatlantic bridge promoting understanding between Europe and the US since 2008. On its website, BFNA has compiled everything you need to know about democracy in the US. For the coming election, it has created an Election Hub. The digital platform contains a range of multimedia resources which provide key insights into the election and the post-election transition process. 

There are five things we should look out for in the election, says Samuel George from the BFNA in the video:
The swing states - of course. This is where the election is decided.
Demographics - which demographic leans towards which candidate
The long night - those hoping for quick results will be put to a test of patience.
The Senate - it's not just about Harris or Trump. The Senate also plays a central role.
The violence - the fear of violent clashes always resonates.  

And also Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook lists five aspects we should watch on election night - and afterwards:
Election fraud: The Trump team sprinkled legal ‘breadcrumbs’ before the election to spread allegations of voter fraud.
Changes to elections and districts: Redistricting is causing distrust because it could give one party an advantage.
Disinformation: Actors from abroad could also launch digital attacks.
Violence: Various violent groups are preparing actions.
Test of patience: It could take days or weeks before final results are available.

The BFNA-site also explains how presidential elections in the US actually work – for example, why some candidates win who do not get a majority of the votes. The reason is the Electoral College. Every state is allocated a different number of electoral college votes. Wining California, for example, gives a candidate 54 votes, while a victory in Delaware is rewarded with only three. Whoever gets at least 270 electoral college votes wins the election.

The west front of the Capitol in Washington, DC. The Capitol houses both chambers of Congress. Together with the presidential election on November 5, all members of the House of Representatives and every third member of the Senate will be newly elected or re-elected. On January 6, 2025, the representatives and senators will count and certify the electoral votes for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. On January 20, the successor of president Joe Biden will be inaugurated at the west front of the Capitol.

Hitting the Ground Running is an analysis of how Kamala Harris entered the race. In his blog post, Marshall Reid describes her forceful start, the record amount of donations made by her supporters and the tactics she wants to deploy to defeat Donald Trump in November.

Samuel George, expert at the Bertelsmann Foundation, explains in his vlog "Kamala Harris – The Dem's New Hope," why Kamala Harris had to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate. She's like "a shot of adrenaline when the Democrats needed it most," he says.

Anthony T. Silberfeld, director at the Bertelsmann Foundation North America, comments in a blog post on the speech made by Kamala Harris at the Democratic National Convention. His judgment matches that of former President Barack Obama: "Yes, she can". 

The election campaign is the time when candidates outdo each other with the promises they make to their voters. Young families are considered. People buying their first home, employees working overtime. And it's always about tarifs and taxes. In this  video, Samuel George, an expert at the Bertelsmann Foundation North America, analyses Trump's and Harris' election promises from an economic perspective - and says how much, or how little, of them can be kept.

The TV debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was a spectacle that still occupies the media. The vice-presidential debate of J.D. Vance and Tim Walz was quite different. Objective, in a reasonable tone, informative. And with no clear winner. Marshall Reid provides a brief analysis of the evening

 

"Beyond the Ballot"

Beyond the Ballot is a podcast in which Bertelsmann Foundation experts are joined by guests to discuss various topics related to the election. In the sixth episode, Courtney Flynn Martino talks to Justin Levitt, professor of law at Loyola Marymount University and former White House political advisor, about election security.

Episode seven deals with the right to vote: It's never been easier to vote than it is today, says David Becker, founder of the Centre for Election Innovation and Research. He joins Courtney Flinn Martino on the ‘Beyond the Ballot’ podcast to discuss what has changed since the 1965 Voting Rights Act and what it means that nearly all Americans will be able to vote in November.

In the final episode of Beyond the Ballot, Dr. Joshua Meddaugh, Chair of the Social Sciences Department at Clayton State University and President of the Georgia Political Science Association, takes a look at the demographic shifts shaping the 2024 U.S. elections, with a focus on Georgia's evolving political landscape. He breaks down how Georgia has transformed from a blue to a red state to a swing state in the last 50 years. He explores the impact of race, religion, and identity on these shifts and why suburban voters are crucial in this election. 

The podcast "How to fix Democracy" has been running for five years now. The current season examines the last 100 years of American democracy. Topics include immigration policy, democracy during the Cold War, the economic crisis of the 1920s, and the development of the Republican Party.

In the upcoming election, the cost of living and inflation is the most important issue for American voters between the ages of 18 and 34.

Say it with a graphic: What is on the minds of young people in the US who are eligible to vote in November? Surveys show that 53 percent are worried about inflation and the rising cost of living, while 28 percent are afraid their income won’t be sufficient to support their lifestyle. And 26 percent would like to see stricter gun control laws.

His first election

"Transponder" is the name of the magazine that BFNA publishes twice a year. Naturally, the latest issue is all about the election. Kenneth Martin describes how he spent the evening of the first election he was eligible to vote in as an adult: initially unsettled, then worried, then shocked and depressed. It was the 2016 election, the one that – surprisingly for many – Donald Trump won.

Transformation Index BTI and the worldwide election calendar

For more than 20 years, we have been using the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) to track how democracy is changing in emerging and developing countries. Today, there are only 63 democracies left, compared to 74 autocracies – as current figures from the BTI show. For the 10th time, the BTI has analyzed changes in political governance in 137 developing and transition countries. 

A look into the BTI Election Calendar.

Since so many elections are being held in 2024, the BTI is offering another special service: the BTI Election Calendar, which provides a comprehensive overview of all the elections taking place this year. It shows the results of elections that have already been held and lists the dates of upcoming elections – paired with all the BTI information available on the relevant countries.

Economic relations between the EU and the USA

The European Union and the United States have the world‘s largest trade and investment partnership, making up one-third of global GDP. Launched in October 2021, the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) is the key forum for maintaining transatlantic economic cooperation. But the upcoming US elections on November 5 could threaten the TTC, especially if Trump is re-elected, potentially leading to its dissolution. Our EU briefing describes how the Trade and Technology Council could be strengthened. 

But what does a second election of Donald Trump mean for Germany and the European Union? Our analysis shows that the changes would be fundamental. Trump has announced that he will significantly reduce US involvement in NATO. He wants to massively reduce military and financial support for Ukraine or even stop it altogether in order to persuade the country to reach a peace agreement with concessions to Russia. By introducing high tariffs on European goods, Trump will severely damage economic relations and trigger a trade war with the European Union (EU). Trump's aim is to turn the USA into an ‘illiberal democracy’. This would weaken liberal democracies and strengthen autocratic and anti-democratic actors, including in Europe.

The election year 2024 in our podcast

In addition, various episodes of the Bertelsmann Stiftung's podcast "Zukunft gestalten" (Shaping the Future) deal with the US election. Irene Braam, executive director of the Bertelsmann Foundation North America, and Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, transatlantic expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, kicked things off on January 24 with the episode "Superwahljahr 2024: Trump, die USA und Europa" (Super Election Year 2024: Trump, the US and Europe).  On July 23, Ashbrook and Daniela Schwarzer, a member of our Executive Board, discussed the current president's departure from the race and Kamala Harris' candidacy in the episode "Der Rückzug von Joe Biden – eine Chance für die amerikanische Demokratie?" (Joe Biden's Withdrawal – An Opportunity for American Democracy?).

Disinformation – using fake news to influence voters – is an issue of growing importance, perhaps one of the most important in the current US election. Disinformation also plays a major role in Germany, as do the efforts to combat it. As a result, the Bertelsmann Stiftung, Stiftung Mercator and Germany's Federal Ministry of the Interior have launched the project Forum gegen Fakes (Forum Against Fakes). Between January and July 2024, some 424,000 participants used the online platform to contribute their opinions and ideas on the topic. They submitted more than 3,300 suggestions for how to combat disinformation online. A citizen council with over 120 participants used this input to discuss the most important points and develop recommendations for how to deal with misleading information.