In this policy brief, Brandon Bohrn and Peter Walkenhorst explore potential challenges Europe and Germany could face under a second Trump term, focusing on NATO and security, Ukraine, economic and trade relations, technology policy, and democracy.
The authors argue that Europe urgently needs a realistic approach to counter the far-reaching consequences of a potential “Trump 2.0.” A second term could see the U.S. withdrawing from NATO or making security commitments conditional on a sharp increase in European defense spending, cutting back support for Ukraine, and imposing tariffs that could strain economic ties. European tech companies might face pressure to comply with U.S. export controls on China, and democratic values could be weakened as Trump shifts the U.S. toward an “illiberal democracy” model, potentially emboldening anti-democratic forces within Europe.
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