Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union

This study examines the economic consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU and thus from the European common market. It is the first study that examines and calculates the economic consequences not only for the United Kingdom, but for the remaining EU-27 member states as well. The study calculates the GDP losses that could arise from the UK’s exit from the EU. The term “GDP losses” describes the difference expressed in percentages between the observed real GDP in the base year (2014) and the simulated (counterfactual) value for a situation in which the United Kingdom is no longer an EU member. Trade policy measures take ten to twelve years after they are introduced to reach full effect. If a BREXIT occurs in 2018, the highlighted effects would be fully felt by 2030.