Germans and Poles the most concerned
When it comes to the consequences of a Brexit for the EU and its member states, there is a lot of uncertainty among EU citizens. Although they fear that the European Union would be weakened, they do not foresee any negative consequences for their own countries. 45 percent of EU citizens outside of the United Kingdom expect the position of the EU to be worsened by the UK leaving the European Union. However, an equal proportion of 45 percent said that they did not believe anything would change for the EU. In terms of the changes that the participants could foresee, economic ones were at the forefront. 45 percent believe that a Brexit would economically weaken the EU, while a third of those questioned – around 26 percent – fear that the EU would suffer a loss of power without the United Kingdom. In Poland (51 percent) and in Germany (48 percent), a narrow majority is worried about the consequences of a possible Brexit. Among the French, Spanish and Italians polled, however, the opinion prevails that a British exit would not have negative consequences.
However, a clearer picture emerges when participants are questioned about consequences for their own countries. Two thirds of EU citizens (67 percent) outside the United Kingdom do not expect a Brexit to have an impact on their country. This mood is also reflected in the larger member states, such as Germany (63 percent), France (68 percent), Italy (68 percent), Poland (63 percent) and Spain (71 percent). Those who are relaxed and unconcerned about the prospect of changes for their country in the event of a Brexit are in the majority every-where with at least 60 percent. "Even though many citizens are more preoccupied with their everyday concerns than they are with the results from London, all Europeans would lose out if the United Kingdom leaves," said Aart De Geus, Chairman and CEO of the Bertelsmann Stiftung.
EU remains attractive for citizens of spite of everything
Although approval for the EU has shrunk in certain countries, the majority of Europeans believe that the EU needs more economic and political integration in the future. When participants were asked which way they would vote in a potential EU referendum, supporters of the EU outweighed its opponents everywhere: while support for the EU in Spain (74 percent), Poland (66 percent) and Germany (62 percent) is very clear, EU critics in France and Italy have the highest approval ratings. With 52 percent of the vote, the pro-Europeans in France only narrowly edge those in favour of an exit. The two camps are also close in Italy (54 percent versus 46 percent).
At the same time there is support throughout the EU for more integration. 59 percent of all EU citizens believe that the EU needs more political and economic integration in the future. In all of the large EU states with the exception of the United Kingdom, this position has strong backing: Spain (78 percent) and Italy (71 percent) show the strongest support – de-spite the fact that Italy is divided on the matter of EU membership. With 49 percent, the French have the smallest figure in favour of more integration. "The desire for more integra-tion shows that citizens still believe in the European project. Only a unified Europe is attractive in the long-term and can survive globally. A Brexit would therefore be a bad sign for all EU citizens," said Aart De Geus.
Additional information
Eupinions is an opinion poll tool that was developed by the Bertelsmann Stiftung together with Dalia Research and regularly questions the citizens of all 28 EU member states on European matters. The opinion poll took place in April 2016 and, with a sample size of 10,992 participants, is representative of the EU and its six largest member states: Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and Poland.