Bertelsmann Stiftung (ed.)

Dr. Ulrich Schoof, Dr. Thieß Petersen, Dr. Rahel Aichele, Prof. Gabriel Felbermayr, Ph.D.

Policy Brief #2015/05:
Brexit – potential economic consequences if the UK exits the EU

Future Social Market Economy Policy Brief #2015/05

  • 1. edition 2015 (PDF)
  • Free of charge

If the United Kingdom (UK) exits the EU in 2018, it would reduce that country’s exports and make imports more expensive. Depending on the extent of trade policy isolation, the UK’s real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would be between 0.6 and 3.0 percent lower in the year 2030 than if the country remained in the EU. If we take into account the dynamic effects that economic integration has on investment and innovation behavior, the GDP losses could rise to 14 percent. In addition, it will bring unforeseeable political disadvantages for the EU – so from our perspective, we must avoid a Brexit.

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