Three questions. Four different takes. Our GED team reflects on Biden’s first 100 days from the lens of their work. Emily Benson looks at his record on domestic U.S. economic policy and Christian Bluth on his U.S.- E.U. relations record. Cora Jungbluth focuses on his record on U.S.-Asia relations, and Thomas Rausch wraps up with a look at his record on multilateral economic policy. Four trade policy experts discuss Biden’s 1st hundred days.

In February, the EU published the “Trade Policy Review,” its new trade strategy. A month later, the “Integrated Review” by the UK was put forward, sketching what “Global Britain” means post-Brexit. The two strategies are similar in their diagnosis of what is going on in the world – yet differ when it comes to what to prioritize.

Part 2 in our – Putting a price on carbon series

The reason for the trend toward pricing carbon is the negative effect of the rise of carbon emissions on the environment and society. In this second entry of our blog post series “Putting a price on carbon,” we go a bit more into the details of this problem.

First in our new series: Putting a price on carbon

On March 22, top executives from major oil companies expressed their support for the Biden administration’s carbon pricing plan. The embrace of carbon pricing by “Big Oil” – its longtime most-fervent opponent – is probably the clearest sign of it moving to near-universal support. This weekly series of blog posts will take a closer look at this emerging global economic dynamic. Follow us on this journey!

Meritocracy adds mental insult to social injury

Meritocracy is a good thing. Wrong, claims Michael J. Sandel in his book “The Tyranny of Merit”! On the way to proving his point, Mr. Sandel indicts globalization as a culprit for rising inequality and eroding social bonds. Let’s take a closer look at his arguments.

What does the concept of terms of trade (TOT) mean, and what does it tell us about a country’s international competitiveness?

The meaning of Terms of Trade

The Terms of Trade of one country indicate how many units of an imported good (or units of a bundle of imported goods) the country receives for one unit of its exported good (or one unit of a bundle of exported goods).

The main themes of the new book by Christian Bluth

The nature of globalization is changing. The US and China make increasingly use of geoeconomic instruments in their big power competition. The EU will have to react in its new EU trade strategy to this development and come up with responses to the challenges posed to its trade policy by climate and demographic change, technological developments, a weakening of multilateral institutions, and an increased politicization of trade policy.

The WTO is entering the final stages of choosing a new Director General. On October 7th, the final contenders out of an initial group of eight were announced: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Nigeria) and Yoo Myung-hee (South Korea). What do these candidates stand for and what agenda lies ahead for the new WTO Director General and global economic governance? This discussion was held online on October 14th at 2pm CEST.

According to recent estimates by the United Nations Conference on Trade in Development (UNCTAD), global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have decreased by 42 percent year-on-year in 2020 and will most probably not start to recover until 2022. Even though developed countries have experienced the highest fall, developing countries are also losing a lot. Since FDI, however, could be considered as a tool to help esp. developing countries coping with the coronavirus crisis, India for example has tried to facilitate the inflow of FDI.

Major events in 2021: Last year around this time, we wrote a blog post with the 11 events likely to change the world economy in 2020. Like everyone else, we missed the most important one: the COVID-pandemic. But we also got some stuff right: something was in the works with RCEP, the US election (OK, that wasn’t too difficult), and that the German EU-Council presidency would face a few challenging issues. So, we decided not to be discouraged and have another shot at prognosticating  which events might shape 2021.

Economic Outlook 2021: The world economy in 2020 was dominated by a massive economic slump in the spring, followed by a rapid recovery in the summer. Then the rising number of infections in the fall halted the recovery process. Economic development in 2021, as it did in 2020, will depend to a large extent on the Coronavirus pandemic.

When we publish our studies, we usually focus on two or three key results. But they often contain substance for a lot more. So, here is the ultimate list of the most intriguing findings from our publications on trade, innovation, and globalization from the last twelve months that we have NOT highlighted in our communication activities – and what they mean when looking toward 2021!

The sharp economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has created “a crisis like no other.” Advanced economies now need to overcome national reflexes and help developing countries.

The United States Trade Representative (USTR) is the key person in charge of trade issues in the President’s administration. The current USTR, Robert Lighthizer, was instrumental in crafting and implementing Trump’s trade policy. On December 9th, several news outlets reported that President-elect Joe Biden will be nominating Katherine Tai for this role. In this blogpost we introduce her and the challenges she is facing.

4 reasons why the exchange rates of industrialized countries have been relatively stable during the corona pandemic 

In severe economic crises, experience shows that in addition to considerable fluctuations in the stock and raw material markets, there have been severe fluctuations in the currency markets. The exchange rate changes in the currencies of advanced economies are still relatively moderate – compared to the financial and economic crisis 2008/09. Why?

The G20 could play a vital role in orchestrating a non-protectionist, sustainable, and inclusive global recovery. Their special Summit on the Corona crisis in March produced some promising results. In previous years, however, in the past, the group of twenty very diverse developed and developing countries has had difficulty finding common ground on important global issues, such as international trade and climate change. It is questionable whether the pandemic will substantially change this. Moreover, Mr. Trump’s legacy and rising geopolitical tensions loom ahead.

The size and age structure of a population can play an outsize role in any country’s economic development in numerous ways, including international competitiveness. Population composition affects competitiveness via propensities to save and consume, companies’ investment behavior, capital intensity of production, and global and regional labor supply.

From October 28 to 30, the Bertelsmann Stiftung co-organized the 2020 Annual Policy Dialogue of the Club de Madrid. Here are some of the key takeaways from the debate.

On November 2, Germany will join the ranks of developed countries introducing additional national measures to slow down the spread of Covid19. What will they mean for the German economy and where do the biggest risks lurk going forward?

The corona pandemic has severely affected international supply chains. Starting with the first production stoppages in China at the beginning of the year, production has also come to a standstill in Germany. In many sectors, important components and preliminary products from the most important supplier country for the EU and Germany were missing. However, the closing of borders within Europe has also considerably slowed down the movement of goods and economic activity.

The WTO is entering the final stages of choosing a new Director General. On October 7th, the final contenders out of an initial group of eight were announced: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Nigeria) and Yoo Myung-hee (South Korea). What do these candidates stand for and what agenda lies ahead for the new WTO Director General and global economic governance? This discussion was held online on October 14th at 2pm CEST.

What the Selection of a New Director General Means for Global Trade Governance

The WTO is entering the final stages of choosing a new Director General. On Wednesday 7th, the final contenders out of an initial group of eight were announced: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Nigeria) and Yoo Myung-hee (South Korea). What do these candidates stand for and what agenda lies ahead for the new WTO Director General and global economic governance?

What the Selection of a New Director General Means for Global Trade Governance

The WTO is entering the final stages of choosing a new Director General. On Wednesday 7th, the final contenders out of an initial group of eight were announced: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Nigeria) and Yoo Myung-hee (South Korea). What do these candidates stand for and what agenda lies ahead for the new WTO Director General and global economic governance?

Students attending school in the current environment could conceivably have a 3% lower lifetime income caused by coronavirus-induced school closures. The most vulnerable are suffering the most under educational restrictions induced by COVID-19. Yet, there exist potential roads to action.

Economic impact of coronavirus: Last year we published the first issue of our megatrend report, which examines the central interactions between the megatrends of globalization, digitalization, and demographic change and their effects on people’s employment and income opportunities. In the second issue, we discuss the impact we expect the Corona pandemic to have on the medium and long-term development of digitalization and globalization

Our "Globalization Report 2020" is now available

As announced last week, we are publishing the “Globalization Report 2020” today. The answer to the question of which of the 45 industrialized and emerging countries studied was able to achieve the largest globalization-induced growth in real gross domestic product per capita between 1990 and 2018 per capita and in euros is Japan. In this post, we present the five key findings of the report.

Two years in the making: Our “Globalization Report 2020” comes out next week

Next week we publish our “Globalization Report 2020”. Every two years since 2014, we have used this report to examine the impact of advancing globalization on the real gross domestic product (GDP) in industrialized and emerging markets.

New Globalization survey: The public thinks the social and ecological dimension of globalization needs more attention!

The corona crisis has many people worried about the negative side-effects of economic interdependence. Our 2020 Globalization Survey shows that public attitudes toward international trade and investment had already turned more negative by the start of the pandemic.

Things are improving – at least for the moment

Economic impact of coronavirus: When corona infections first appeared in Europe in February, an economic crisis loomed on the horizon. The full extent of the crisis, however, was not yet foreseeable. Half a year later, it is clear that the recession triggered by the corona crisis is much greater than the economic downturn caused by the Lehman bankruptcy. But as of now, it looks as if European economies have touched the bottom and rebounded.

Cities and globalization: Cities all around the world see themselves exposed to several megatrends. They are directly confronted with the needs of their citizens and obliged to offer competitiveness, resilience and a high-quality of life for a long-term sustainable development.

Eleven years later, in 2019, Italy had still not yet reached the real economic output it had before the Lehman bankruptcy. Now the country is again suffering above-average economic consequences from the Corona pandemic. The already high national debt is rising. Credit-ratings are under considerable pressure.

The book ‘Good Economics for Hard Times’ by 2019 Nobel Prize winners Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo is a walkthrough of past decades’ central contributions to the economic literature. It introduces the concept of “randomized controlled trials” to a broader audience. In light of the current corona crisis, their ideas have become highly relevant.