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Newsletter of Jan 31, 2020

Our latest study finds that states have reaped significant gains from being members to the global trade club. 

 

What Has the WTO Ever Done for Us?

On January 1st, the WTO will celebrate its 25st, birthday. Whether it is looking forward to a rosy future is however uncertain. Their largest members, the US and China escalate their tariff disputes outside the organization. At the same time, the US’s blocking of the Appellate Body risks damaging the whole institution. The US and China should think twice though: together with Germany, they are among the largest beneficiaries of the rules-based trading system.

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World Economic Outlook 2020 - Is a Slight Upswing Possible?

Since autumn 2018, the economic outlook for the global economy has declined. As feared at the beginning of 2019, the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the world grew less strongly in 2019 than in 2018. With a little chance, we have passed the economic bottom in 2019, so that somewhat stronger growth is possible in 2020.

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11 Major Events that Could Change the Global Economy in 2020

The new decade starts with a lot of meaningful events. As we did for 2019, we chose 11 of them to which you should definitely pay attention to!

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Is Industrial Policy Now on the Front Line of Policy-Making?

With our upcoming study “Can we learn from Trump and Xi? Globalization and Innovation as Drivers of a New Industrial Policy”, we will highlight potential learnings for Germany and the EU from the US and China. During the following weeks, we will disseminate the study in our blog – giving you a closer look at the industrial policy approaches of the US and China and possibilities for future industrial policy-making in the EU and Germany.

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Economic Impact of Foreign-owned Firms in the EU and Germany

In times of Trump and Brexit, protectionist tendencies seem to be a global trend. The advantages that economic interconnectedness implies are increasingly receding into the background. Foreign-owned firms in the EU and Germany, however, make a considerable contribution to employment and gross domestic product (GDP).

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A Glance into the Crystal Ball: What Will the Future of Global Trade Look Like?

In our blog posts, we deal extensively with the current situation of world trade as well as its opportunities and risks. But how might global trade develop in the future? This article takes a look into the crystal ball.

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Will Blockchain Disrupt Supply-Chains and Logistics?

Blockchain is more than the technology behind Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Beyond financial services, blockchain technology promises far-reaching applications in other business fields such as logistics and supply-chains. But a suitable policy framework is required. 

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Productivity Growth and the Internationality of Innovative Milieus

The total factor productivity growth is generally low in Germany. However, the manufacturing sector shows comparatively high productivity growth rates. Within the manufacturing sector, more innovative milieus are more international. Lessons can be learned.

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Fish, Transparency and the Future of the WTO

For years, discussions on disciplining subsidies to fisheries have been ongoing at the WTO. For many observers, this has become a test case whether WTO members can still reach an agreement and whether the institution can move ahead. This blogpost discusses how some ideas developed in GED Publications can help to enforce an agreement on fisheries.

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Where Is the Land of Opportunity for the Less Educated Workers?

The impact of globalization and technological on our life is debatable and it is one of the core points for policymakers. The job security and wage development (for more information on the effect of globalization on wage development and job security read our globalization report here) are among the issues that make us worry about globalization as an employee.

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About Global Economic Dynamics (GED):

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable.

The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.

 

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Andreas Esche

Director, Program Megatrends

 

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