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Newsletter of Dec 19, 2019

Our new study in collaboration with our colleagues from the Demography Project shows how aging alters the current account balance of industrialized countries.

 

An Aging population - The impact on Foreign Trade in Industrialized Countries

An aging population: In the last week, we have shown what theoretical connections can be expected between an ageing society and the current account balance of this country. The question now is which demographically induced effects important industrial nations such as Germany, Japan and the USA can expect in their current account balances by 2050. The corresponding simulation calculations come from a recent study.

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Demographics and foreign trade: What are the effects of an aging population on the current account balance of an economy?

The change in the age structure of a society has an impact on key macroeconomic variables, including the savings and investment ratios, the inflation rate and overall economic productivity. Our forthcoming paper outlines some central relationships between the ageing of population in developed industrial economies and their current account balances.

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How to Organise a WTO Ministerial Conference

In June 2020, the Kazakh government is going to host the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference. This week, GED is meeting their negotiators for a workshop identifying best practices in hosting multilateral conferences. This event is organised together with the Centre for Multilateral Negotiations.

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Roadmap 2030: Spreading Globalisation Gains More Widely

In this instalment of the Roadmap 2030 blogpost, we look into the discontents with globalization and how they can be addressed. As we see from surveys, people tend to be concerned about job security and wage developments in the context of globalisation. They feel insufficiently protected against negative side effects of globalisation.

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Roadmap 2030: 3 ways to ensure the German Economy’s competitiveness in the coming decade

German Economy: The catching-up of emerging markets (especially China); demographic change; and digitization are the three central challenges that could have a significant impact on Germany‘s competitiveness in the future. Germany must be better prepared for this. Germany can focus on three fields of action to achieve this:securing its competitiveness, creating stable framework conditions in the EU and supporting a rules-based international order.

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GED Welcomes Markus Overdiek

Markus joined the Global Economic Dynamics (GED) team in November 2019. He studied Public Policy at the University of Münster, with a major focus on economics and a minor focus on law and politics. During his master, he has been for one semester at the Aix-Marseille School of Economics and for a summer school at the University of Twente. Markus wrote his master thesis about smart cities in Europe. In his thesis, he constructed subjective and objective indices for a smart city performance by elaborating a unique dataset which he then analyzed econometrically to find out about potential smart city drivers.

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GED welcomes Ashenafi Teshome Guta!

Ashenafi joined the Global Economic Dynamics (GED) team at Bertelsmann-Stiftung as an intern in October 2019 and will be working in collaboration with other team members and also individually to contribute to the GED project.Ashenafi will serve a key role in our analysis of the role of the African free trade agreement and Ethiopian economic performance and its implication for the continent and world. He will also contribute to our ongoing work on the future of work by analyzing job polarisation (hollowing out of the middle-skill- middle-wage occupation) from the recent work of David Autor: "Work of the past, Work of the future".

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About Global Economic Dynamics (GED):

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable.

The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.

 

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Andreas Esche

Director, Program Megatrends

 

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