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Newsletter of Jan 28, 2021

In our first newsletter of 2021, we take a look back at 2020 and speculate what 2021 might have in store.

 

World Economic Outlook 2021 – Unstable, Unpredictable, and Slow

Economic Outlook 2021: The world economy in 2020 was dominated by a massive economic slump in the spring, followed by a rapid recovery in the summer. Then the rising number of infections in the fall halted the recovery process. Economic development in 2021, as it did in 2020, will depend to a large extent on the Coronavirus pandemic.

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12 Major Events That Could Change the World Economy 2021

Economy 2021: Last year around this time, we wrote a blog post with the 11 events likely to change the world economy in 2020. Like everyone else, we missed the most important one: the COVID-pandemic. But we also got some stuff right: something was in the works with RCEP, the US election (OK, that wasn’t too difficult), and that the German EU-Council presidency would face a few challenging issues. So, we decided not to be discouraged and have another shot at prognosticating which events might shape 2021.

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Ouch! COVID-19 has hit global FDI flows really hard

According to recent estimates by the United Nations Conference on Trade in Development (UNCTAD), global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have decreased by 42 percent year-on-year in 2020 and will most probably not start to recover until 2022. Even though developed countries have experienced the highest fall, developing countries are also losing a lot. Since FDI, however, could be considered as a tool to help esp. developing countries coping with the coronavirus crisis, India for example has tried to facilitate the inflow of FDI.

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International Competitiveness and Terms of Trade

The international competitiveness of an economy is a central goal of economic policy. But how can this competitiveness be measured? One important indicator is the “Terms of Trade.” (TOT)

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Our 2020 Reader’s Choice Awards – Our 7 most popular blog posts of the year

Time for some year-end statistics! Here are the 2020 GED blog post that attracted the most readers. Our analyses on the Covid19 crisis drew considerable attention, but so did our globalization report and our spotlights on China and Ethiopia.

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5 Odd Charts from our 2020 Studies

When we publish our studies, we usually focus on two or three key results. But they often contain substance for a lot more. So, here is the ultimate list of the most intriguing findings from our publications on trade, innovation, and globalization from the last twelve months that we have NOT highlighted in our communication activities – and what they mean when looking toward 2021!

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Possibly the Last GED-Blogpost about Brexit: Deal or No Deal, EU-UK Trade Will Suffer

Brexit has brought us much excitement since 2016. With a trade deal or without, the UK will lose the benefits of EU membership on December 31st. This blogpost looks back on the Brexit process and forward on how EU-UK relations might evolve from here and why it still makes sense for both to collaborate, especially on trade issues. 

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About Global Economic Dynamics (GED):

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable.

The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.

 

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Andreas Esche

Director, Program Megatrends

 

Bertelsmann Stiftung

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The Bertelsmann Stiftung, based in Gütersloh, Germany, is a nonprofit, private

operating foundation in accordance with Section 1 of North Rhine-Westphalia's Foundation Law.

The district government of Detmold serves as its supervisory authority.

Founder: Reinhard Mohn

Chairman of the Board of Trustees: Prof. Dr. Werner J. Bauer

Executive Board: Dr. Ralph Heck (Chairman), Dr. Brigitte Mohn, Prof. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer