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November 2024
Dear Readers,
The start of November marks the final stretch of the “Super Election Year,” with the US presidential election just around the corner. In this edition of GED Monthly, find an analysis of some factors that will shape this election’s outcome, from legal challenges to disinformation tactics, and also a look at what a potential second Trump administration could mean for Europe and Germany, particularly in areas like security and trade.
We also cover two recent elections on Europe’s borders: Tunisia and Georgia. In Tunisia, President Kais Saied secured a dominant victory over a heavily repressed and weakened opposition. Our recap includes EU policy recommendations for navigating relations with Tunisia. In Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream party claimed a fourth consecutive parliamentary victory, but this is an evolving situation with the President rejecting the results and peaceful protests emerging in Tbilisi. Our election preview explores this pivotal moment and how the EU can support Georgian democracy.
In trade news, EU tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles took effect last week, a move supporting European industries and fair competition, according to our experts. China’s role in global trade is also evolving through BRICS, which is expanding its membership and challenging Western financial systems. The recent BRICS Summit underscores the EU’s need for partnerships with the Global South. Our analysis highlights how initiatives like the Global Gateway can diversify supply chains, secure resources and support Europe’s green transition. The tariffs on Chinese EVs and the BRICS summit also reflect the growing influence of geopolitics on trade – a key theme in our article on the future of international trade.
As Europe moves toward climate neutrality, the new Net-Zero Navigator tool offers a way to measure progress, showing the complex path EU members face in balancing emissions cuts with economic growth.
Finally, we were honoured to host Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković at the Bertelsmann Stiftung in Berlin. In conversation with Executive Board Member Daniela Schwarzer, Plenković shared insights on EU enlargement, migration and the Ukraine crisis. Read our summary of this insightful discussion.
With warm wishes,
Malte Zabel
Co-Director
Europe’s Future Program
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5 Things to Watch in the 2024 US Election
The 2024 US election faces five risks: interference via lawsuits, voting credibility undermined by partisan rules, disinformation targeting voter turnout, potential violence from radicalized groups and possible delays in certification. These factors will test the stability of US democracy as the election enters its final phase.
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Trump 2.0: What is at Stake for Europe and Germany
A Trump return could impact European security, economy and democracy. Likely consequences include NATO withdrawal pressures, reduced support for Ukraine, trade conflicts, tech decoupling from China, and weakened liberal democracies, demanding Europe proactively prepare to protect its core interests.
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The Future of International Trade Relations
Global trade is shaped by an array of trends: rising protectionism, geopolitical influence in trade policy, increased capital intensity, supply chain disruptions and growing subsidies. These shifts pose challenges to rule-based trade, economic prosperity and global cooperation, with the WTO and EU regional agreements as possible stabilizers.
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BRICS Summit Highlights Need to Improve Strategic EU-Global South Ties
The BRICS Summit demonstrates growing interest in alternative options to Western-led financial systems, sending a warning for the EU to deepen mutually beneficial ties with the Global South with strategies like Global Gateway.
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Georgia Between Freedom and Authoritarianism – Fair Choice or Russian Resolve?
Georgia’s elections are critical as Georgian Dream’s influence has brough the country further from the EU. The EU must push for fair elections, support civil society and counter Russian interference.
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Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenković on EU Enlargement, Migration and Ukraine
On Monday 14 October 2024 at the Bertelsmann Stiftung Berlin, Croatian prime minister Andrej Plenković spoke with Daniela Schwarzer, Executive Board Member of Bertelsmann Stiftung, on the challenges facing the European Union.
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Are EU Member States on the Path to Climate Neutrality? Introducing the Net-Zero Navigator
The Net-Zero Navigator tool allows users to compare EU countries’ progress on decoupling emissions from GDP growth. Many countries aim to reach climate neutrality by 2045, highlighting the need for innovative paths forward.
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Draghi Report and EV Tariffs: Why a Stop Now Would Send the Wrong Signal
China's state-supported EV overproduction is undercutting EU markets, threatening local industries and risking reliance on Chinese suppliers. The EU was right to use its trade defense tools at this moment to ensure fair competition.
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Tunisia Votes: The EU’s Role in What Happens Next
Tunisia's 2024 election solidified Saied’s authoritarian rule amid low voter turnout and economic issues. The EU must decide on engagement strategies, balancing support for civil society and democratic reforms with the realities of Saied’s regime.
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