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March 2025
Dear Readers,
In recent weeks, Europe has experienced significant developments reshaping its political, security and technological landscape. The ongoing Ukraine-Russia-United States negotiations to secure a ceasefire are damaging the transatlantic relationship by sidelining Kyiv and Europe. This follows US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks at the Munich Security Conference, in which he disparaged European democracies and distorted the threats facing Europe, deepening concerns about transatlantic ties. In this newsletter, we examine the state of the transatlantic alliance and Europe’s security perspectives.
Meanwhile, the AI Action Summit in Paris underscored the urgency of digital independence, with new investments to accelerate Europe’s digitalisation. Read about the EuroStack initiative and its recommendations to reduce reliance on non-European tech.
In Germany, a CDU election victory quickly turned into political drama as lawmakers rushed to loosen the "debt brake", unlocking funds for defense, infrastructure, and green investments. Beyond Germany’s fiscal shift, the EU is exploring how to boost defense spending across the bloc. Read our featured policy brief on how it can do so without triggering another euro crisis.
With so much occupying attention in Europe, it can be easy to overlook developments further east—but Europe must also focus on China, crafting a cohesive strategy that moves beyond Trump’s erratic approach. At the same time, connectivity politics are shaping competition in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, where the EU’s Global Gateway initiative faces competing influence from Russia, China, and Türkiye. Read our latest analysis on how connectivity is reshaping power dynamics in the region.
Read on for insights into these fast-moving developments shaping Europe’s future.
Happy reading and warm wishes,
Malte Zabel
Co-Director
Europe’s Future Program
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How to Defend Europe Without Risking Another Euro Crisis
Europe must significantly increase defense spending while ensuring fiscal stability. Current EU fiscal rules lack long-term certainty, and temporary escape clauses won't suffice. A targeted exemption for defense spending until 2032 and potential EU-wide borrowing could provide necessary financial flexibility.
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Connectivity Politics in a Time of Strategic Power Rivalries
The South Caucasus and Central Asia sit at the crossroads of EU, Russian, and Chinese influence. While the EU’s Global Gateway seeks to foster economic ties, competing visions of connectivity shape trade, security, and diplomacy. Can Europe carve a unique role?
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EuroStack: The Urgency of Europe’s Digital Independence
Europe’s reliance on non-European digital infrastructure threatens innovation and security. The EuroStack initiative aims to reduce dependencies, strengthen AI and cloud capabilities, and promote sovereign European tech solutions.
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Unstable Grounds: Why Trump’s China Policy Cannot Guide Europe
Trump’s unpredictable China policy raises concerns for Europe. The EU must develop a cohesive strategy to balance security risks and economic interests.
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Shifting Allegiances or Limited Ambitions? European Security at a Crossroads
With US foreign policy shifts, European nations reassess security strategies. While some increase defense spending, others remain cautious about direct troop deployment in Ukraine. European unity and transatlantic ties are at stake.
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A New Transatlantic Bargain: Strengthening the European Pillar of Collective Defence
With the US seeking burden-sharing, Europe must enhance defense capabilities. Increased spending, troop readiness, and strategic consolidation are key. The US should maintain its NATO role, but Europe must lead in its own security efforts.
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