January 2025

 

Dear Readers,

 

Since the US election victory of Donald Trump – not to mention the dissolution of Germany’s governing coalition – the start of 2025 has been highly anticipated with no shortage of unease. Now, Trump has taken office, and many of Europe’s capitals – and the Commission – are squaring up for a fight, while also offering a hand for cooperation.

 

Security and defence will be crucial topics in the coming months. European governments are planning for a world where NATO's strength may be compromised under a Trump presidency. In two articles, we present a range of perspectives on how European countries are balancing their defence needs, while navigating the incentive trap in transatlantic defence.

 

For insights into the impact of Trump's trade policies, we feature an article analysing how his tariffs could disrupt European and global trade.

 

Turning to the broader European context, find our run-down of major events and trends on the radar this year. A common thread: Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Ukraine and the Middle East, will make Europe vulnerable to external forces. A divided Europe risks becoming a pawn in the power struggle between other powers like the United States, Russia and China.

 

Finally, in the Western Balkans, regional rivalries and internal instability are challenging the EU's enlargement strategy. Russia, China and Türkiye, along with growing illiberal trends, threaten to undermine the region's integration with the EU.

 

Happy reading and warm wishes,

 

Malte Zabel

 

Co-Director

Europe’s Future Program
 
NATO flag waving over the sky

European Defence and Trump: Strategic Calculations and Potential Compromises

With a potential NATO weakening under the new US administration, European governments seek more self-reliance in security. Two approaches are debated: Europeanisation (deeper EU defense cooperation) and Bilateralisation (stronger ties with the US). Both paths will likely be pursued to balance European defense efforts with continued US cooperation.
Read more

 
optimized workflow success and optimize alignment efficiency representing business organizational order and systematic corporate management as a management concept

Untangling the Transatlantic Incentive Trap: Europe’s Plan and America’s Contribution

The EU might consider reducing its defense reliance on the US while maintaining cooperation. By modernizing its defense industry, closing capability gaps, and assuming leadership in NATO missions, Europe can enhance security autonomy. Strengthening EU-US cooperation in defense technology and production is key for a more balanced transatlantic partnership. Read more

EU and USA trade war caused by the 2018 US tariffs on steel and aluminium

Trumponomics: How the EU May Respond to US Trade Policy

Trump's protectionist trade policies, including tariffs, could disrupt global trade, negatively affecting both the US and Europe. The EU may see reduced exports and job losses, especially if Chinese goods flood European markets. In response, the EU may impose tariffs, offer subsidies, or reduce its trade barriers.
Read more

 
2024 change to 2025

Major Events and Trends Shaping Europe and the World in 2025

Europe faces a perilous 2025 marked by political fragmentation, economic instability, and geopolitical tensions. The ongoing Ukraine conflict, rising tensions in the Middle East, and internal divisions risk turning Europe into a geopolitical pawn, vulnerable to manipulation by powers like Russia and China.
Read more

map of western balkan states

Geopolitical Rivalries in the WB6: What Does this Mean for Renewed EU Enlargement?

The EU's enlargement strategy in the Western Balkans (WB6) faces significant challenges due to rising external influences from Russia, China, and Türkiye, as well as growing illiberal trends. While Montenegro's 2028 goal and Albania's negotiations offer hope, a unified EU strategy is crucial for successful integration. Read more

 

In the next edition

 

In our next issue, find a view on the connectivity politics of the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and much more.

To keep abreast of our work, please keep an eye on our blog: globaleurope.eu

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