Transformation Insights is the Newsletter of the Transformation Index BTI. We analyze Transformation Processes toward democracy and market economy in international comparison and identify successful strategies for peaceful change. BTI Transformation Index
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The global state of democracy is at a turning point. Around the world, democratic institutions are under growing pressure from rising authoritarianism, democratic backsliding, disinformation and deepening political polarization. The Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2026 examines these developments, asking why autocracies appear to be gaining ground and what it will take for democracies to strengthen the rule of law, political participation and public trust.
Across our latest publications and events, BTI experts and leading scholars explore these questions from different perspectives. The new issue of change magazine examines whether democracies can still deliver in times of geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty, while the latest episode of the ZUKUNFT GESTALTEN podcast reflects on more than 20 years of BTI findings and discusses why, despite widespread democratic backsliding, democracy remains resilient and capable of learning. These debates also took center stage at the BTI conference in Madrid, where experts explored the changing conditions for democratic governance in an age of hyper-communication and disinformation. Together, they challenge one of today's most persistent assumptions: although authoritarian regimes are often perceived as more efficient, the evidence shows that this is largely a myth. In the long run, democracies remain better equipped to foster resilient, sustainable and inclusive governance. Visit our website.
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New Pathways from West Africa to Vocational Training and Employment
published July 2026
As part of the Global Skills Partnership project, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) is cooperating with Bauverbände NRW e. V. The aim is to identify, pilot, and establish fair, legal, and professionally sustainable migration pathways from Ghana and Senegal into the German construction sector that create a “triple win” for all stakeholders involved. Read the article here.
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Road to Transitional Justice in Syria: A Fragmented State Surrounded by War
published May 2026
Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, Syria’s transitional authorities have presented accountability and transitional justice as central pillars of political reconstruction. Yet meaningful transitional justice cannot emerge in a fragmented state exposed to institutional weakness, political exclusion, and regional conflict. With a weak interim government, a highly diverse populace and a new war at its borders, can transitional justice remain a government priority? Read the article here.
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A Stalled Transformation: Guatemala’s Struggle for Democratic Reform
published November 2025
Bernardo Arévalo’s unexpected victory in Guatemala’s 2023 run-off election raised hopes of a decisive break with the country’s entrenched systems of corruption and elite capture. Two years into his presidential term, however, the momentum of reform has largely stalled. Read the article here.
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The Myth of Authoritarian Efficiency
published April 2026
Novi Sad, a railway station and a railway line in Serbia’s second-largest city—an infrastructure project publicly staged during the 2022 election campaign by Aleksandar Vučić together with Viktor Orbán, ceremonially inaugurated in July 2024. A prestige project intended to symbolize progress—modernization of infrastructure, state efficiency, and political decisiveness.
By Lena Herholz, intern at the BTI from September 2025 to March 2026. Read the article here.
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BTI Event in Madrid: Rising Autocracies, Rising Resistance
On May 20th, BTI directors Sabine Donner and Hauke Hartmann had the opportunity to present and discuss the latest findings of the BTI at Espacio Bertelsmann in Madrid – together with a superb panel and an inspiring keynote speaker. The Bertelsmann Stiftung hosted this conference in cooperation with our colleagues of the Fundación Bertelsmann. This year, the renowned Fundación Carolina, a public-private partnership involving the Spanish government, universities and major corporations dedicated to promoting cooperation between Spain and Latin America, joined as an external partner. The panel discussion was moderated by Vicent Climent-Ferrando, Senior Project Manager at the Fundación Bertelsmann. Erika Maria Rodriguez Pinzón, Director of the co-organizing Fundación Carolina, Fernando Vallespin, Professor of Politics at the Universidad Autónoma in Madrid and Sabine Donner debated the changing conditions for democratic governance, particularly against the backdrop of hyper-communication and disinformation. The event drew significant interest from representatives of academia, politics, the media, and think tanks, which formed a knowledgeable and engaged audience. Find a recording of the event here.
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The Temperature Curve of Democracy
20 Years of BTI
This episode of “ZUKUNFT GESTALTEN” focuses on the state of democracy around the world, and on the question of why authoritarian systems currently seem to be gaining more ground than they have in many years. For over 20 years, the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) has been analyzing the development of democratic and authoritarian forms of government. We’ve just seen a surge of momentum for democracy in Hungary: But how stable are democracies today? And how can we find our way back to greater rule of law and political participation? Malva Sucker and Jochen Arntz speak with Dr. Petra Guasti of Charles University in Prague and Sebastian Plate, Project Manager of the BTI, about the latest findings from the index. Together, they assess global developments, discuss the erosion of democracy and societal resistance—and explore why democracy remains resilient and capable of learning despite all crises. Click here to listen to the podcast.
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BTI Article in Change Magazine
Can democracies still deliver in times of growing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and societal polarization? The new issue of change magazine explores this question through the lens of the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) 2026. In a featured interview, BTI experts Sabine Donner and Hauke Hartmann alongside Petra Guasti, Associate Professor for Democratic Theory at Charles University in Prague, discuss a sobering trend: autocracies are gaining ground globally, while democracies face increasing pressure. Complementing the debate, former member of the executive board of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, Daniela Schwarzer, reflects on why the perceived efficiency of autocratic systems remains a powerful narrative, but often a misleading one. The new issue is available in German via this link.
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LinkedIn
The BTI Team posts regularly on LinkedIn. In the coming weeks, we are taking a closer look at BTI 2026 data through all our three dimensions and seven regions. Additionally, we provide project updates on events and publications. Visit LinkedIn.
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In our next Newsletter
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Looking ahead, our next newsletter will feature the latest BTI publications, upcoming events and fresh perspectives on global transformation. From expert analyses and podcasts to international conferences and new communication initiatives, we'll continue to share the debates, evidence and stories shaping global transformation. BTI LinkedIn
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