Dear Readers,
Europe’s rentrée politique has been anything but a return from summer quiet. Leaders across the continent have faced sobering reality checks, ranging from Europe’s marginalisation in efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine to the fragility of July’s tariff deal with Washington. China’s leader Xi Jinping laid out Beijing’s ambitions for an alternative international order after welcoming his counterparts from Russia, India, and Iran to a security forum in an attempt to challenge US President Donald Trump’s global stewardship. Meanwhile, inside the Union, too, instability lingers, with French PM Bayrou heading into a confidence vote next week.
The Trump–Putin summit in Alaska was a moment of clarity: Europe’s influence over both ending Russia’s aggression and shaping what follows remains minimal, even though it will be expected to shoulder responsibility for Ukraine’s security. Determined not to stand by passively, European leaders rallied around President Zelenskyy before Alaska and, afterwards, accompanied him to the White House in a show of unity. Yet, with Putin’s intensifying bombardments of Kyiv, a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin or any progress, which Trump is keen to take credit for, looks improbable.
What Europe can do in the meantime is sustain pressure on Moscow by advancing the 19th sanctions package, discussed by foreign ministers in Copenhagen last weekend. For how these measures can effectively hamper Russia’s war economy, my colleague Miriam Kosmehl provides the analysis linked below.
On the transatlantic front, the EU’s trade deal with Washington was fragile from the start, and it is proving to be exactly that. Trump still has Europe on his radar, with the latest threats over EU digital regulation. At the same time, key legal and sector-specific details of the deal remain unresolved, creating uncertainty for businesses. If you want to take a step back and understand why the EU was unable to secure a better deal in the first place, I encourage you to read Etienne Höra’s analysis linked below.
These challenges to Europe’s security, tech sovereignty, and economic competitiveness are likely to loom large in Commission President von der Leyen’s SOTEU address next week. Alongside foreign and trade policy, she is likely to focus on European competitiveness, with regulatory simplification framed as the way forward. Whether this proves to be real streamlining or thinly disguised deregulation will be unpacked in a forthcoming brief about the Commission’s simplification agenda by Claudia Geiser. Additionally, in the next edition, our experts will provide their takes on different aspects of the SOTEU.
Until then, we wish you a successful rentrée!
Best wishes,
Daniela Schwarzer
Member of the Executive Board
