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Global Economic Dynamics

Newsletter of October 2016

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable. The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.

 

Blog Post

What the Heck is up with CETA?

On Thursday October 27th Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, were planned to meet at the EU-Canadian Summit. At the festive meeting, both parties were set to put their final signatures on the long negotiated CETA free trade agreement. That was before the event got cancelled due to the boycott of one small Belgian region. Even though Wallonia by now has agreed to the new terms of the deal, the consequences of the last few days are still unclear. What happened? read more

 

Blog Post

Are Deals like the TTIP putting India's Economy at Risk?

The results of this blog post in short:

- India has been historically reserved when it comes to larger trade deals. This could be about to change.

- While TTIP and TPP would only affect India's economy in minor ways, Asian deals like the RCEP and FTAAP could lead to significant positive income effects.

- Even though overall effects might be positive, negative effects in sectors such as agriculture could lead to immense political backlash in India. read more

 

Blog Post

Understanding European Banks Today in Four Simple Steps

Not a single week passes without Deutsche Bank being discussed in the news. Most recently, numbers were leaked that the biggest German bank is supposed to pay $14bn in fines. Commerzbank, too, is struggling with its current business model, announcing that it would cut nearly 10.000 jobs and halt paying dividends. This development is not a new one. Over the last years, European Banks have been a constant source of discussion and worry in the media. This Blogpost explains the problem of European banks in 4 simple steps. read more

 

Blog Post

A Tale of Reckless Liberalization and overly Defensive Protectionism

Last month we published the main results of our Globalization Report 2016 covering 42 countries and the period from 1990 to 2014. This blog post takes a deeper glance at the results of the four Latin American economies which are included in this Report. read more

 

Blog Post

Why Trade in Services Resisted the Crisis

Results from this blog post in short:

- Services represent the most dynamic component of developed economies.

- While the 2008/09 crisis affected trade in goods in a major way, trade in services remained relatively unaffected.

- Policy should focus more on services, in order to exploit their comparative advantage and enjoy higher growth prospects and stability. read more

Blog Post

What the World Needs Now is Inclusive Growth

Results from this blog post in short:

- It is too early yet to fully realize the impact of Brexit but the UK’s and EU’s choice of how to organize an exit will be key.

- China is the largest outward investor among the emerging economies, yet the potential involvement of the Chinese government in such deals increasingly raises suspicion in Europe.

- A protectionist “race to the bottom” though, should not be the answer. read more

Blog Post

The Importance of Schengen

Open borders in Europe were the most visible feature of European integration. In autumn 2015, due to the refugee crisis many countries began to reintroduce border controls or – even more drastically – build fences. The Schengen Agreement was in danger. Earlier this year, the GED team commissioned a study calculating the economic effects of a departure from the Schengen Agreement which I presented at the Prague European Summit. The video highlights from this summit are now available for you in this blog post. read more

 

About Global Economic Dynamics (GED):

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable.

The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.

 

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Andreas Esche

Director, Program Megatrends

 

Bertelsmann Stiftung

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The Bertelsmann Stiftung, based in Gütersloh, Germany, is an nonprofit, private

operating foundation in accordance with Section 1 of North Rhine-Westphalia's Foundation Law.

The district government of Detmold serves as its supervisory authority.

Founder: Reinhard Mohn

Chairman of the Board of Trustees: Prof. Dr. Werner J. Bauer

Executive Board: Aart De Geus (Chair), Liz Mohn (Vice Chair), Dr. Jörg Dräger, Dr. Brigitte Mohn