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Global Economic Dynamics

Newsletter of November 2018

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable. The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.

 

Focus Paper

The Rage Against Globalization Shows Up In the Voting Booth

Our newest GED Focus Paper looks at imports and voting results in 2013 and 2017 in Germany. By measuring Chinese import penetration on an electoral district level and running a set of linear regression models, the paper finds that districts more heavily exposed to import penetration showed an increased propensity to support the anti-globalization oriented, right-wing populist AfD party during the 2013 and 2017 elections. On the other hand, the traditionally labor-leaning social democratic party, SPD, consistently lost significant voter shares in those districts. Download the full paper by selecting one of the options in the box above. read more

 

Blog Post

Keeping it Real in Brazil

On October 28, Brazil became the latest country to elect a fire brand, nationalist right-winger, brash on rhetoric and skimpy on policy. The election of Jair Bolsonaro as President of Brazil seems only less jarring because it has become par for the course for global democracy. read more

 

Focus Paper

Shades of 2008 - Unprecedented Levels of China's Debt Threaten the Entire Global Economy

The figures of the Chinese debts are subject to ongoing discussion among economists. Will the enormous rise in Chinese corporate and private debt lead to another global financial crisis or will it be managed by the Chinese government? If China’s debt management fails, the macroeconomic effects are expected to overshadow the catastrophic effects of the 2008 financial and economic crises by large. read more

 

Blog Post

How the German Economy is Connected to Eastern Europe

In our mini-series on Global Value Chains (GVCs) we look how three German key industries – motor vehicles, chemicals and machinery – are part of complex international production networks that illustrate the key role of comparative advantage. This week: the relevance of economic ties between Central and Eastern European Countries and Germany. read more

 

About Global Economic Dynamics (GED):

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable.

The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.

 

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Andreas Esche

Director, Program Megatrends

 

Bertelsmann Stiftung

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33311 Gütersloh

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Tel: +49 5241 81-81333

Fax: +49 5241 81-681333

E-mail: ged@bertelsmann-stiftung.de

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The Bertelsmann Stiftung, based in Gütersloh, Germany, is an nonprofit, private

operating foundation in accordance with Section 1 of North Rhine-Westphalia's Foundation Law.

The district government of Detmold serves as its supervisory authority.

Founder: Reinhard Mohn

Chairman of the Board of Trustees: Prof. Dr. Werner J. Bauer

Executive Board: Aart De Geus (Chair), Liz Mohn (Vice Chair), Dr. Jörg Dräger, Dr. Brigitte Mohn