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Global Economic Dynamics

Newsletter of March 2018

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable. The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.


Blog Post

The Truth about Trump's Punitive Tariffs

At the beginning of March, President Trump announced to impose import tariffs on steel (25 percent) and on aluminum (10 percent). The legal basis is the national security threat law. Obviously the aim of these measures is to increase employment and income in the U.S. However, the economic outcome will be the opposite. Here are five reasons for this assessment. read more



What if Trump Implements a Border Tax Adjustment?

During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump called for a “Border Tax Adjustment“. Planned was a business tax reform, it would effectively be an import tax of 20 percent and simultaneously a 20% general export subsidy. read more



What Is Going to Happen, if Trump Withdraws from NAFTA?

In 1991, the US, Canada and Mexico signed the free trade agreement NAFTA. Back then that was an influential and important step for overall trade. The closely integrated value chains among the 3 countries meant NAFTA had a big influence on productivity for all three. read more



What if Trump Implements Import Taxes and So Does the World?

In the course of his protectionist policies, US President Trump might attempt to further protect the US market against the rest of the world by means of tariffs and other trade obstacles.  If the US unilaterally increases their import tariffs e.g. by 20 percent, American real earnings would in fact increase slightly. read more



Germany‘s Export Surpluses – Asset Accumulation for the Future?

For decades, Germany has been generating large export surpluses. These surpluses are accompanied by an increase in foreign assets. However, there is no guarantee that these asset investments will maintain their value over the long term. If Germany’s cumulative current account surpluses between 2000 and 2017 are compared with the change in its net foreign assets in the same period, the result is a book loss in the hundreds of billions of euros. read more



Boosting Intra-African Trade

Though the journey towards a better-integrated continent is in progress, the CFTA is still met with certain obstacles and challenges despite what is to be gained. The objective of the focus paper is to, therefore, critically analyse the opportunities of trade facilitation in Africa and its hindrances. read more



Boosting Digital Services Trade – Potentials and Obstacles

Thank you for joining us on Tuesday, 6 March 2018 for a discussion of the latest GED study with Erik van der Marel and Philipp Lamprecht of ECIPE and Christian Bluth of the GED Team.

You can view a recording of this webinar, right here. read more



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About Global Economic Dynamics (GED):

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable.

The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.


Andreas Esche

Director, Program Megatrends


Bertelsmann Stiftung

Carl-Bertelsmann-Str. 256

33311 Gütersloh


Tel: +49 5241 81-81333

Fax: +49 5241 81-681333

E-mail: ged@bertelsmann-stiftung.de

Web: www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de


The Bertelsmann Stiftung, based in Gütersloh, Germany, is a nonprofit, private

operating foundation in accordance with Section 1 of North Rhine-Westphalia's Foundation Law.

The district government of Detmold serves as its supervisory authority.

Founder: Reinhard Mohn

Chairman of the Board of Trustees: Prof. Dr. Werner J. Bauer

Executive Board: Dr. Ralph Heck (Chairman), Dr. Brigitte Mohn, Prof. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer