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Global Economic Dynamics

Newsletter of December 2015

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable. The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.



Nobody wins with BREXIT

Since the threat of a Grexit has been averted for the time being, a possible exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) poses the next danger for European integration. In our study “Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union” from April 2015, we analyzed the static effects of a Brexit. We were able to show that due to less cross-border trade activities all 28 EU countries would suffer from lower economic growth. Now we calculated the dynamic growth effects of a Brexit. Again, all 28 economies would be faced with lower growth rates. Growth losses would be even larger than in the case of static effects only. read more



The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU - an Animation Video on Brexit

Leaving the EU… wouldn’t all Britons benefit from that? They would be independent from any of Brussels’ regulations. The United Kingdom wouldn’t have to ship off millions of pounds to Brussels and could use these for their own priorities. Britons wouldn’t have to carry the can for other countries’ failures and pay for them. And Britain could set its own trade agreements with the rest of the world. read more



Pascal Lamy on Trade Agreement “Generations”

Pascal Lamy (former Director-General at WTO) spoke on the three generations of trade agreements (“jurassic”, “modern” and “futuristic”) at the GED sponsored “Multilateral Regionalism and Emerging Markets - Opportunities and Risks in Global Trade” panel at the Global Economic Symposium in Kiel.

Pascal Lamy started by pointing out that opening trade leads to welfare improvements, assuming the fullfilment of a number of conditions. Thus, the important question is – according to him – how to remove obstacles to trade? read more



Trade Talk at the Global Economic Symposium

On October 14th, the Bertelsmann Stiftung hosted a session on “Multilateral Regionalism and Emerging Markets - Opportunities and Risks in Global Trade” at the Global Economic Symposium in Kiel. Session speakers included Andreas Esche (Director, Shaping Sustainable Economies Program in the Bertelsmann Stiftung); Joseph Francois (Managing Director, World Trade Institute); Bernard Hoekman (Professor, Robert Schumann Centre for Advanced Studies); Pascal Lamy (honorary president, think tank Notre Europe and former Director-General, WTO) and Petra Pinzler (Berlin Correspondent, DIE ZEIT). read more



Germany’s Export Surplus – a Blessing or Curse?

Since the start of the 21st century, Germany has been generating high export and current account surpluses. But something that Germany has welcomed as a success that secures jobs is being increasingly criticized by the rest of the world. Especially in the rest of Europe, accusations are growing louder that German exports are displacing domestic products and thereby fueling unemployment in those countries. What are the causes and consequences of Germany’s export surplus? What are potential ways to reduce it? read more



Who Wins and Who Loses with TPP

Our study on the economic impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) adds important findings on the impact of TPP for both its members and for, those not a party to the agreement.

This trade pact was recently signed by the US and 11 other Pacific Rim economies (Australia, Brunei, Chile, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam), representing some 37% of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 10% of world population and 20% of world trade. read more



TTIP & TPP – a good Agreement for Who?

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz spoke with GED’s Uli Schoof during a recent trip to Berlin regarding trade agreements, tariffs and transparency. In this part of the interview, Stiglitz talks about the two major multi-lateral agreements, TPP and TTIP and who they benefit. Stiglitz covers Big Pharma and intellectual property rights and discusses who benefits from the lack of transparency which has dominated the public’s perception of the negotiation of these agreements. read more



The Land of Opportunity no more - the U.S. leading Developed Countries in Inequality

Talking in Berlin recently with the GED team’s, Uli Schoof, Professor Joseph Stiglitz shared an American perspective on inequality. In this fascinating interview, Stiglitz spoke of the changing U.S. economy and how reality has caught up dispite cultural optimism with the reality of the broken American Dream. Growing anger, the out-of-touch-with-reality American right and two generations of declining living standards are all discussed in this interesting narrative from a preeminent U.S. economist. read more



An Interview with Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz

The GED team’s, Uli Schoof sat down with Nobel laureate, Joseph Stiglitz recently to get his views on inequality, inclusive growth and free trade. In the resulting interview, Professor Stiglitz shared his thoughts on the “American Dream”, multi-national trade agreements and the failure of “Trickle Down” economics while contrasting the European and North American Response to the financial crisis. read more



Inclusive Growth and the Social Market Economy – do we need a new Promise of Prosperity?

On September 16th, the Bertelsmann Stiftung invited Prof. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Nobel laureate in Economics and Prof. Dr. Christoph Schmidt, Chairman of the German Council of Economic Experts in order to discuss the question: “Inclusive Growth and the Social Market Economy – Do we Need a New Promise of Prosperity?”. read more


Job Vancancies

Project Manager and Intern

The Bertelmann Stiftung's Global Economic Dynamics Project is seeking a Project Manager and an Intern. read more



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About Global Economic Dynamics (GED):

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable.

The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.


Andreas Esche

Director, Program Megatrends


Bertelsmann Stiftung

Carl-Bertelsmann-Str. 256

33311 Gütersloh


Tel: +49 5241 81-81333

Fax: +49 5241 81-681333

E-mail: ged@bertelsmann-stiftung.de

Web: www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de


The Bertelsmann Stiftung, based in Gütersloh, Germany, is a nonprofit, private

operating foundation in accordance with Section 1 of North Rhine-Westphalia's Foundation Law.

The district government of Detmold serves as its supervisory authority.

Founder: Reinhard Mohn

Chairman of the Board of Trustees: Prof. Dr. Werner J. Bauer

Executive Board: Dr. Ralph Heck (Chairman), Dr. Brigitte Mohn, Prof. Dr. Daniela Schwarzer