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Newsletter of Jan 31, 2019

Our first newsletter of 2019 takes a look at the shape of things to come: What is the economic outlook amid rising political insecurity and which major events could mold globalization?

 

World Economic Outlook 2019

World economic outlook 2019: The global economy in 2018 was characterized by numerous political uncertainties: the future development of the trade disputes between the USA and China, the negotiations on the forthcoming Brexit, the Italian budgetary policy, the economic and political development in Turkey and much more. Unfortunately, these insecurities will not diminish in 2019. Global economic growth could therefore be weaker in 2019 than in 2018.

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11 Major Events that Could Change the Global Economy in 2019

Legend has it that a journalist asked former British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan about the biggest challenge for his government. His reply: Events, dear boy, events… While global economic dynamics are to a large extent a function of broad political or macroeconomic trends, important events – just as powerful persons – can make a big difference in their shaping. Therefore, here are our picks for political events that could have huge effects on the world economy in 2019.

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New Focus Paper: WTO – What Way Forward for Trade Dispute Settlement?

The dispute settlement body of the World Trade Organization (WTO) performs an important role in adjudicating trade disputes. In this new GED Focus Paper, international trade law expert Robert McDougall proposes some fresh ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the WTO Appellate Body as a chance to improve and update trade dispute resolution at the WTO.

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World Economic Forum 2019

Every year, the high and mighty meet in the Swiss ski resort by invitation of the World Economic Forum for its Annual Meeting. This year, they discuss “Globalisation 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution”. A worthy topic, but will Davos give global governance more momentum?

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Davos Discussion – The Paradox of Protectionist Policies

In recent years, many countries (not only in the U.S. under Donald Trump) have been imposing punitive tariffs and other trade barriers to protect their domestic economies. In fact, however, protectionist measures damage the national economy. Nevertheless, these decisions are often supported by a majority. This paradoxical phenomenon can be explained by Anthony Downs’ political-economic considerations.

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The Best of GED – 2018

2018 has been another exiting year for the Global Economic Dynamics Project. With populism on the rise and growing protectionist tendencies being felt in many western nations, the GED team aimed to deliver to you the necessary facts and insights concerning all things trade and economics this year. Our studies, focus papers, blogposts and videos covered everything from large geopolitical events such as the election of Donald Trump – to less mainstream stories such as boosting intra-African trade.

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Blog Recommendation: Inclusive Productivity

Bertelsmann Stiftung’s project “Productivity for Inclusive Growth” develops participatory options for the state to set the conditions for greater and broader productivity growth in Germany. You want to stay up-to-date on their activities to make productivity a subject of public debate? Please visit their German blog and sign up for their German newsletter.

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About Global Economic Dynamics (GED):

We help make complex economic dynamics transparent and understandable.

The project examines the causes and effects of economic trends, as well as the connections linking one trend to another.

 

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Andreas Esche

Director, Program Megatrends

 

Bertelsmann Stiftung

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E-mail: ged@bertelsmann-stiftung.de

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The Bertelsmann Stiftung, based in Gütersloh, Germany, is an nonprofit, private

operating foundation in accordance with Section 1 of North Rhine-Westphalia's Foundation Law.

The district government of Detmold serves as its supervisory authority.

Founder: Reinhard Mohn

Chairman of the Board of Trustees: Prof. Dr. Werner J. Bauer

Executive Board: Aart De Geus (Chair), Liz Mohn (Vice Chair), Dr. Jörg Dräger, Dr. Brigitte Mohn